An Even But Unpredictable Milan Derby Expected Despite Difference In Form

Written By Onyeka Daniel

With the weekend Serie A action over and done with, the Coppa Italia will now take the centre stage for this week as the semi-finals will be played where Empoli Vs Bologna and Inter Vs AC Milan clashes will determine who goes to the final. For the two Milanese clubs, they arrive into this encounter in contrasting forms.

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Hence, for legendary manager, Fabio Capello, it is hard to believe that the Rossoneri can upset the odds and get a win against the Nerazzurri. He further added that derbies always operate under their own logic, as the Milan repeatedly proved in their last meetings with the city rivals with two wins and a draw in their last three encounters.

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The former Real Madrid manager also noted how motivation could make a difference in the upcoming Derby della Madonnina, as the Diavolo’s season has essentially ended with their 2-1 defeat Napoli on Sunday, and winning the Coppa Italia now seems as their only way to play European football next season.

“Inter are competing on three fronts, with Champions League and Serie A as their primary goals,” Capello told Gazzetta dello Sport in an interview. “Milan’s season essentially ended with their loss at Napoli. For Conceiçao and his team, you could say the Coppa Italia is now the only way to secure European qualification.”

“Not seeing Milan play in European competitions next year would be very hurtful.” Capello was particularly impressed by Inter’s opening 45 minutes against Udinese, although he believes they eventually relaxed too much, putting their win at risk. “They are a solid team, alert and difficult to stop once they get into the rhythm,” he continued.

“Yesterday’s first half confirmed two things: first, Dimarco is special; when he runs the wing, he’s always dangerous with cut-back passes or pinpoint crosses. Second, Thuram has rediscovered excellent form. It was a bit like Germany against Italy: Inter relaxed too much, resting on their positive result. After Solet’s goal, they couldn’t regain control.”

“Football isn’t like electricity, you can’t just turn it back on. I think Inzaghi realised this and got frustrated with his players before being sent off. However, Milan also put up a strong reaction in the second half against Napoli. “Milan’s first half was scandalous,” he said. “I didn’t understand Conceiçao’s choices: Joao Felix starting against an opponent that runs like Napoli.”

“The Leao on the bench. Well… Leao has something extra, but of course, he lacks consistency. If he had it, maybe he wouldn’t be in this Milan…” While the two teams’ differing form suggests the outcome of the Coppa Italia Derby della Madonnina is easy to predict, the 78-year-old insists the difference mainly exists on paper.

Milan have already shown they can rise to the occasion when considered underdogs. “On paper, it’s hard to believe it after seeing Inter’s first half against Udinese and Milan’s first half at Napoli,” he reflected. “If both teams repeat the 45 minutes from yesterday, I struggle to see a game, but again, derbies are unique.”

“Even in the last three meetings, Milan showed up in particular moments and were largely the Underdogs.” As for the game’s tactical keys, Capello highlighted that Milan should be cautious of one of Simone Inzaghi’s main strengths. “Inter’s counterattacks,” he further explained.

“If Milan show the same fragility as they did at Napoli, they will struggle to withstand the pressure. Inter are back to countering quickly and effectively, almost instinctively. The players know what to do, and the coach has his certainties. Milan, with Conceiçao, don’t seem to have the same.” He further added.

In a disturbing statistics, Milan have missed four penalty kicks this season, more than any other club in Europe’s top five leagues. In their loss to Napoli yesterday, they missed another with their January signing Gimenez missing a penalty kick early in the second half when the score was still at 2-0 and there was still hope for a comeback.

Sadly for the Serie A giants, Gimenez was their fourth penalty-kick taker to miss his chance from the spot this season. Theo Hernandez, Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic had previously failed to convert spot-kicks in 2024-25 and according to reports, the Rossoneri have the worst penalty kick record in Europe’s top five leagues.

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They’ve missed four penalties from nine (55.6% conversion rate). Bundesliga side Freiburg have also made four errors from the spot this season. Theo and Abraham saw Fiorentina keeper David de Gea save two penalties in one game in October, infuriating Paulo Fonseca. More recently, Pulisic missed a penalty against Torino in a 2-1 away defeat.

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