Top 8 Or Bust: What Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs Must Do To Skip The UCL Knockout Playoffs

The UEFA Champions League league phase wraps up this Wednesday, with several Premier League clubs still fighting to secure their spots in the knockout rounds.

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While most English sides face high-stakes finales, Arsenal finds themselves in a unique position of luxury.

Having maintained a perfect record with seven consecutive victories, the Gunners are already guaranteed a top-two finish. Their upcoming home match against bottom-seeded Kairat is effectively a dead rubber, as the result won’t impact the standings for either side.

That situation is the outlier, not the standard. While several teams hit the road, Liverpool and Manchester City enjoy home advantage in the North West, hosting Qarabag and Galatasaray as they fight to secure their spots in the next round. Meanwhile, the rest of the English contingent faces tough away fixtures: Chelsea travels to Naples, Newcastle heads to Paris, and Tottenham visits Frankfurt.

According to a report from the Mirror, Arsenal currently lead the standings with a three-point cushion over second-place Bayern Munich. Real Madrid and Liverpool follow closely in third and fourth; while both trail the German leaders by three points, Madrid holds the edge on goal difference.

Arsenal is currently in the driver’s seat, safe in the knowledge that they’ve secured at least a top-two finish. Only a massive, five-goal comeback by Bayern Munich this week could knock them off the top spot.

Meanwhile, Liverpool’s fate is far more volatile. They have a slim chance of climbing to second, but it would require a perfect storm: a win of their own, a Bayern loss, and a massive goal-difference swing involving both Bayern and Real Madrid. On the flip side, a loss to Qarabag could be disastrous—if other results don’t go their way, they could tumble all the way down to 14th.

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The race for the final podium spot is incredibly tight. Tottenham is currently in the driver’s seat for third place; a win, coupled with dropped points from Liverpool and Real Madrid, would secure it. However, the margins are razor-thin—a loss, combined with a specific sequence of twelve other results, could see Spurs plummet to 16th.

Waiting in the wings are Chelsea, Manchester City, and Newcastle. All three have a mathematical path to third place if they win their matches, the teams above them slip up, and they manage to bridge the gap in goal difference. Conversely, a defeat and a worst-case scenario across the league could leave these clubs as low as 17th or 18th.